Inside Track: It’s an outside bet but Louth could still be promoted

Beat Derry on Saturday, and Louth remove all danger of relegation. But even if the Páirc Mhuire tie ends in defeat, Gavin Devlin’s team could, come Sunday evening, be guaranteed Division Two football next season.

There is, however, a bigger prize to be aimed at. The prospects of Division One football being played at the new county grounds are still alive.

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After Saturday’s game comes an away meeting with Kildare in the final round, and if successful in both, the Reds will be right in the mix for promotion. It would depend on the outcome of other matches.

Matches in this weekend’s the Division Two programme of most relevance to Louth are Cork against Kildare at Páirc Uí Chaoimh, and if the win goes to the home team, then Louth are safe.

Kildare are on just three points, and the most they could accumulate after a weekend defeat would be five points.

The match between Offaly and Cavan has a real wooden spoon look to it. Offaly are without a win, and at this stage, the most they can achieve are four points.

If Mickey Harte’s students were to come up with a double win and Cavan and Kildare lose each of their last two matches, they’d execute an escape of biblical proportions, something akin to what Lazarus conjured up.

No harm to take a look what’s coming up over the next two weekends.

Round Six: Cork v Kildare, Meath v Tyrone (at Croke Park), Louth v Derry; Offaly v Cavan. Round Seven, March 22: Derry v Cavan, Kildare v Louth, Offaly v Meath, Cork v Tyrone.

Derry, Meath and Cork are on 8 points, Louth on 6, Tyrone on 5, Kildare on 3, Cavan on 2, with Offaly still looking for a first win.

DERRY TRAVELLING BUOYED BY BIG WIN OVER CORK

The pity about Louth’s match with Derry is that only 2,500 can be there to witness it. Páirc Mhuire is certainly capable of holding many hundreds more than that, but there are Health & Safety regulations to be observed, and, as the fella says, that’s that.

Some consolation for those who have to stay at home is that the game is being televised. It goes out on RTE, and if the national broadcaster comes up with coverage to match TG 4’s from Breffni Park last Saturday week, couch potatoes and barstool occupiers won’t be disappointed.

A headline from last week: “Buzz back in Derry after Rebel rout”. And in the text underneath: “Derry have well and truly blown out the ‘dirty diesel’ – and now they are ‘sucking diesel’.”

This all followed Derry’s 1-31 to 0-14 win over Cork, who went into the Celtic Park match defending an unbeaten four-match record. Prior to that, the Oak Leaf had won three of their four matches, none of them very convincingly.

Shane McGuigan came in with 1-7, many of his scores coming from the dominance exercising by Conor Glass and Brendan Rogers at midfield. It’s at the middle of the park where many games are being won and lost in the ‘new’ game. This should be no different.

The 8 and 9 will pose problems for Louth; but whereas there were concerns leading up to the Cavan match, Dara McDonnell and Conor Early showed at Breffni they are capable of more than holding their own.

And when there wasn’t clean catching, the team’s determination to hoover up the loose ball was greater than in any other game played so far.

While Derry won the last Ardee meeting of the sides, Páirc Mhuire has been good to Louth. There’s been only one other loss there since Mickey Harte chose it as the venue for all home league games. Some estimate it to be worth three or four points to the Reds.

A repeat of the Cavan performance, especially the first half of it, will see Louth go a long way to picking up both points. Rarely has there been better than that day’s first 35 minutes, the home team almost beaten into submission.

The good work was maintained in the early part of the second half, Louth pushing their lead out to 18 points. Had it been continued to the end, the win could have been of record proportions.

But it wasn’t. A mixture of complacency and the search for goals, when all that was required was points to keep the scoreboard moving, threw Cavan a lifeline, and though it wasn’t enough to save the locals, Gavin Devlin won’t want to see a repeat.

There have been many pairings along the line in this campaign with, you could say, piquancy attached, coaches facing former colleagues and teams with which they were once linked.

You had Mickey Harte, in charge of Offaly, plotting against three of his former county teams, Tyrone, Louth and Derry. In all of those posts, he had Devlin on his shoulder.

Now you have Devlin facing Derry, his side having already disposed of his native Tyrone. He has coached extensively at club level in Derry, and would have a firm idea of who will pose the biggest threat on Saturday.

It’s a big one for Louth. A win would be a further step up the ladder, making sure it’s Division Two football at least, that’s played at the projected opening of the new county grounds next January.

The bookies make Derry favourites, but the layers don’t always get it right. They didn’t for the Tyrone match.