It really is all to play for in Louth in this General Election

With three outgoing TDs not seeking re-election; a boundary change that sees Louth having some areas transferred to the Meath East constituency that will result in the loss of around 11,500 voters in Louth; and what is seen by some as a further disillusionment with what would be seen as establishment parties in favour of Independent politicians, there is a lot of uncertainty as to who will take the five seats in Louth in General Election 2024.

The boundary change are a result of the 2023 Dáil Constituency Review produced by An Coimisiún Toghcháin, the Electoral Commission.

An Coimisiún Toghchái was established after the Electoral Reform Act 2022 was passed by the Oireachtas following the 2022 Census.

The changes for General Election 2024 have come about due to the increase in the population, and are aimed at upholding Article 16.2.2 of the Constitution of Ireland, Bunreacht na hÉireann, that says one TD should speak on behalf of between 20,000 and 30,000 people.

As a result of the constituency review, Louth has seen some areas transferred to Meath East, but it will still maintain its five seats.

The 2020 general election saw Sinn Féin top the poll and see its two candidates elected on the first count.

The quota was 11,778 votes, and with 17,203 first preference votes, Imelda Munster not only was elected on the first count, she took 24.34% of the first preference vote share in Louth and had almost an extra half quota to spare.

Her Sinn Féin colleague, Ruairí Ó Murchú was also elected on the first count with 12,491 votes and 17.68% of the first preference vote share. Between them they had over 42% of the first preference votes.

The other three candidates to be elected in Louth in 2020 were Fine Gael's Fergus O'Dowd, who received 6,380 first preference votes; Independent TD Peter Fitzpatrick, who received 6,085 first preference votes; and Labour's Ged Nash, who received 5,824 first preference votes.

The three outgoing TDs who are not seeking re-election in 2024 are Fergus O'Dowd, Imelda Munster and Peter Fitzpatrick, with just Ruairí Ó Murchú and Ged Nash looking to hold their seats.

So what are their chances of holding their seats and if they do, who will take the remaining three?

While it is seen as easier for a sitting TD to hold their seat, there is no guarantee this time around.

There are 24 candidates confirmed for Louth, both party politicians and Independent candidates.

They are: David Bradley (Independent), David Brennan (Independent), Marianne Butler (Green Party), Paula Butterly (Fine Gael), Albert David Byrne (Independent), Joanna Byrne (Sinn Féin), Kevin Callan (Independent), David Carroll (Independent), Thomas Clare (Independent), Alison Comyn (Fianna Fáil), Alan Fagan (Independent), Hermann Kelly (Irish Freedom Party), Derek McElearney (Irish People), John McGahon (Fine Gael), Niall McCreanor (Social Democrats), Derek McElearney (Irish People), Erin McGreehan (Fianna Fáil), Ryan McKeown (Independent Ireland), Ged Nash (Labour Party), Peter James Nugent (Independent), Michael O'Dowd (Aontú), Tracy Marie O'Hanlon (Independent), Ruairí Ó Murchú (Sinn Féin), James Renaghan (People Before Profit-Solidarity), Antóin Watters (Sinn Féin).

If polls are to be believed, Sinn Féin has lost some popularity, its performance in this year's local and European elections suggest that this is the case.

It should be noted however that Sinn Féin did not do as well as hoped in the 2019 local elections but rebounded in the 2020 general election winning 37 seats, and the party has grown a significat following in Louth.

This time around the party is running three candidates – Ruairí Ó Murchú, along with Cllr Joanna Byrne who is seeking to take Imelda Munster's seat, and Cllr Antóin Watters, who is seeking to take a third seat for the party.

On the face of it, it looks like an uphill task for the party. However, were Joanna Byrne to take even two-thirds of the first preference votes Imelda Munster received, she would be almost assured of taking the seat.

As a sitting TD, the party would be hopeful that Ruairí Ó Murchú would hold his seat, so the question would be could Antóin Watters take a third?

As a councillor he topped the poll in the last two local elections. He is well liked across the board and acknowledged as one of the most proactive councillors in north Louth.

So while Sinn Féin's popularity seems to have dipped overall in the past year or so, on a good day for the party, one might expect that they would at least hold onto their two seats.

With most recent polls indicating a rise in support for Sinn Féin, do not be surprised if the party sees all three of its candidates elected.

With Fergus O'Dowd not seeking re-election, Senator John McGahon and Cllr Paula Butterly are flying the flag for Fine Gael this time around.

This will be John McGahon's second run in a general election. He took in 4,442 first preference votes in 2020 and would be very hopeful of taking a seat for the party this time around.

He has been very active canvassing for some time now and the party has been up to recently, quite bullish about his prospects.

Recent press however, regarding Senator McGahon's 2022 acquittal in the Dundalk Circuit Criminal Court for assaulting a man outside the Rum House in 2018, and subsequently found 65% civilly liable by a High Court jury earlier this year, after being sued by the man, may have damaged his prospects.

Should this be the case, Fine Gael voters may choose to vote for its second candidate, Cllr Paula Butterly.

Paula Butterly will be hoping to take a second seat for the party, but while an active councillor who would be expected to do well in mid Louth and the south of the county, she might lose votes to candidates like Aontú's Michael O'Dowd and Independent candidate Kevin Callan, who would both be expected to perform well in south Louth.

It might still be expected however that Fine Gael could still take one seat in the county.

Fianna Fáil will be looking to take back the seat in Louth that it lost in 2020, when Declan Breathnach failed to be re-elected.

The party is running two candidates, Senator Erin McGreehan and Alison Comyn.

It is understood Erin McGreehan was selected by Michael Martin in 2020 to be a Senator with the aim of raising her profile for a run in the general election.

Alison Comyn might be seen by some locally as a celebrity candidate. A well known local journalist in Drogheda, she has also worked on television with networks including Sky News.

This could be another challenging election for Fianna Fáíl in Louth however.

While both competent candidates, they would need transfers from other candidates to get through, and it is diffiult to see where they will come from.

There are also fears that while Senator McGreehan has been active perhaps nationally during her term as Senator, her profile locally might not be as well known.

For Labour, Ged Nash is hoping to retain the seat he won in 2020, when he took 5,824 first preference votes.

Labour has a big following in the south of the county, and while the boundary change may see him lose some votes, should the party agree a pact with the Green Party, one which they are understood to have agreed in the 2020 election, transfers could help see him hold his seat.

One of the most interesting things to watch in Louth this year will be to see if an Independent candidate can take a seat.
Outgoing Independent TD Peter Fitzpatrick took in 6,085 first preference votes last time around, and Independent candidate, Cllr Kevin Callan will be hoping he can do at least as well.

A popular councillor in south Louth, he stood in both Drogheda Rural and Urban in the 2019 local elections, winning a seat in both. He was re-elected in 2024 and was also elected as Cathaoirleach of Louth County Council.

He has been very active the past number of months raising his profile in the rest of the county, and would be seen as a transfer-friendly candidate.

With a growing disillusionment of what might be seen as establishment political parties by some sectors of the electorate in the past few years, Cllr Callan could well capitalise on this and take a seat in Louth.

So, a prediction for Louth? Sinn Féin to take two seats, Fine Gael to take one seat, Ged Nash for Labour to hold his seat, and Independent candiate Kevin Callan to take the remaining seat.